Saturday, October 15, 2011

Weather--An Ever Changing Topic

MCC Earth Science instructor Paul Hamill points to a low pressure system over the Midwest on a computer weather model in the MCC weather office while students Anna Gontkovic and Regina D’Amico look on.

In Crystal Lake, we live in a part of the country with weather extremes. We could go from a hot and sticky summer to subzero temperatures the following winter. Plus, there’s no easy way to predict the weather, so we need to rely on experts, including MCC’s own meteorologist Paul Hamill.

Hamill became interested in meteorology ever since he experienced his first tornado on his aunt’s farm at age five and was taken into the basement for safety. By age eight, he would take his family’s barometer and thermometer off the wall and try to predict the weather. He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in geography/meteorology from Western Illinois University and a Master of Science degree in atmospheric science from the University of Wisconsin at Madison. He teaches introductory courses in meteorology, astronomy, geology and oceanography and a Natural Hazards and Disasters class.

Many of Hamill’s former students have continued their education in meteorology at four-year universities, including one former MCC student who is now the on-camera weather anchor for a Quincy, Illinois TV station.

MCC’s Weather Station
Hamill and his meteorology students monitor the weather and display climate data with MCC’s weather station, located on the rooftop of Building A. Using the data along with computer forecasting models, students make daily and five-day weather forecasts for the College. Students also compile climate data for the year and year-to-year comparisons.
Hamill established the weather station 13 years ago to give students an opportunity to gain experience in monitoring and predicting the weather. The weather office currently includes one paid student weather technician and various volunteers who routinely post and update weather conditions analyses from around the globe on 12 weather monitors in the science hallway. The monitors display wind speed, humidity, temperature, and many other meteorological variables. The Weather Channel also runs continuously on a large monitor outside the weather office.
 
Weather Station Expansion
To give more students a chance to learn about meteorology, Hamill plans to expand the weather station by Spring 2012 to include a virtual weather office, which will allow earth science students to access weather conditions remotely from anywhere in the College.
“It will allow students, the College and the community to access weather data more readily and it will become more useful in our classroom labs,” he said. “My goal is to create a weather lab with weather simulations and get students more involved,” he said.
MCC Relies on Hamill’s Expertise

In the event of approaching severe weather, MCC administrators regularly seek Hamill’s input and have used his weather data when deciding whether to cancel classes. The most recent scenario was in July, when severe thunderstorms dumped a foot of rain in the area and caused massive power outages that lasted up to five days for some McHenry County residents.

“In the 15 years that I’ve been here, that’s a record for total rainfall in the month of July,” Hamill said. “As of early September, we’re way ahead of our normal rain for the year,” he said.

Weather Myths
Some people blame the recent crazy weather on global warming or other trends such as El Niño or La Niña, but Hamill said it was just a strange summer for weather.

“We can’t attribute the daily weather occurrences to the long term effects of global warming,” he said. “Weather is a short-term phenomenon. Those storms that happened in July, Hamill said, were caused by straight line winds, called derechos, which are not overly common but can appear anywhere in the Midwest in the summertime. Hamill did note that this summer was the first in the last four summers that was warmer than normal. He partially attributed this summer’s heat to the sun’s active peak, which occurs every 11 years.
“If the sun stays active, next summer should be as hot as this summer or hotter.”

Accurate Predictions
When asked how accurately his weather predictions are for MCC, Hamill said that we are quite accurate on forecast up to five days; beyond five days, the accuracy decreases rapidly.  For example, last February, Hamill shared storm data with administrators when a blizzard originally headed toward Bloomington took a sudden turn and moved toward the Crystal Lake area. Hamill conveyed the last minute changes with administrators who cancelled classes two hours earlier than anticipated. The college remained closed for two and a half days.

“At the last minute, the storm center moved north, about 100 miles and we got directly hit,” Hamill said. “None of the (computer forecast) models predicted that until six hours before that. We knew we were supposed to get snow, but not the amount that we ended up with—about 23 inches in 24 hours.”

Benefits the Community
Hamill provides weather forecasts for community weather enthusiasts and for the McHenry Chamber of Commerce, who uses his rain data for the McHenry Fiesta Days.
“In the last 15 years, it only rained once while monitoring rainfall during the Fiesta Days,” he noted.

Hamill also presents severe weather topics for youth safety camps with the Lake in the Hills Police Department and answers calls from attorneys who want specific weather data—such as how much snow fell on a particular day—to use in court cases.

 Love of Teaching
“I want to instill passion in the students about the subject matter. I love seeing their eyes light up about a concept they didn’t know about before.”

“Weather is dynamic. It changes nonstop. I’m always changing lectures because the weather keeps changing,” he said. “I would like my students to walk away from my class with a better appreciation of the weather and how it affects their lives. After taking my class, they don’t need to watch the Weather Channel, they can use Internet models to make their own forecast,” he said.

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